Fifty Steps of Two Percent
Estimate to two decimal places, with no calculator and no paper, in under thirty seconds. Then say how confident you are in the second decimal place, and why.
Five Rings opens with a phone screen where roughly 10 to 19 questions arrive read aloud on a 15 to 30 second countdown, before probability and game theory get any slower.
Estimate to two decimal places, with no calculator and no paper, in under thirty seconds. Then say how confident you are in the second decimal place, and why.
Ada and Bo play a stripped-down poker game. Three tokens marked , , and are shuffled; one is dealt face down to each player and the third is set aside unseen. Each player antes , so the pot is .
Only Ada acts. She may **check**, in which case the tokens are revealed and the higher one takes the pot; or she may **bet **, after which Bo either **folds** (Ada takes the pot) or **calls **, after which the tokens are revealed and the higher one takes the pot.
Both players know the rules and each other's strategies; neither can be exploited. Find the equilibrium: how often should Ada bet with the , and how often should Bo call with the ?
You roll two fair eight-sided dice, independently, showing and (each uniform on ). Compute .
Before computing, say what your instinct is, and then say whether your instinct was right.
A brief behavioral opener, then rapid-fire math
Depth over speed, escalating on purpose
Bluffing and bidding scenarios, not brainteasers
Several sessions with traders, quants and developers
Drill fast mental math under a clock
A brewery's yeast culture doubles every minutes under ideal conditions. A technician checks the tank at minutes and counts cells (in appropriate units). What count should the technician expect at minutes?
Let be independent random variables, each distributed as (mean , variance ). The probability can be written as , where is the standard normal CDF. Find .
No calculator, roughly thirty seconds each. Estimate:
(a)
(b)
State the landmark constants you are leaning on.
Write out every integer from to in a long list. How many times does the digit appear in total? (Note that a number like contributes three occurrences.)
Follow-up: how many of those numbers contain at least one ?
Seven judges sit at a round table, each with a distinct score written on a card in front of them. The seven cards are dealt to the seven seats uniformly at random. Call a seat a **peak** if its score is higher than the scores at both of the seats immediately beside it.
What is the expected number of peaks? Then generalise to seats.
A carnival booth runs this game. You spin a fair six-sided spinner **twice** and keep your better result. The house spins the same spinner **once**. You win if your kept number is strictly greater than the house's; if the two are equal the game is a push and your stake is returned; otherwise you lose your stake.
(a) What is your probability of winning?
(b) At even money on a stake, what is your expected profit per play?
A warehouse scanner assigns each incoming parcel a bin code drawn uniformly at random from codes, independently each time and with repetition allowed. Let be the number of the parcel that first receives a code already used by an earlier parcel.
Estimate . Give a general formula in terms of the number of codes .
A 20 to 30 minute call: a short behavioral opener, then roughly 10 to 19 rapid-fire questions read aloud with a 15 to 30 second countdown each, mixing Fermi estimates with mental math like square roots, fraction division and logarithms. The clock includes the time it takes to hear the question, so a fast rough answer beats a slow exact one.
One to three calls of 45 to 60 minutes going deeper into probability, statistics, stochastic processes and game theory. A question typically starts simple, then gets modified and generalized as you answer, and interviewers keep pushing until you reach something you cannot immediately solve. Stating your assumptions is scored alongside the final answer.
Yes. Candidates solve a collaborative game live with a trader, such as a simplified poker-style bluffing problem or a bidding and auction scenario built on expected-value optimization. The interviewer plays along rather than only grading, so it runs as a genuine back-and-forth before the final onsite.