A Market on Unseen Dice

Four players at a table each shake a sealed cup holding 6 6 fair six-sided dice; nobody, including the shakers, has seen any face. You must make a market on the grand total of all 24 24 dice. (a) What is fair value, and what would you quote to open? (b) A confident counterparty sells you 10 10 contracts at your bid of 82 82 — how do you adjust your quote? (c) One cup is lifted and its 6 6 dice show a total of 15 15 . What is your new fair value?

Answer

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