How Many Flips Prove the Edge

A vendor sells you a coin-flipping machine and claims it is unbiased. You suspect it actually lands heads 55% 55\% of the time. Flips are independent and you may run as many as you like.

(a) Using a quick two-sigma argument, roughly how many flips do you need before a 55% 55\% machine would show up as clearly non-random? (b) Do it properly: how many flips give a one-sided 5% 5\% test an 80% 80\% chance of detecting the bias? (c) A colleague flipped the machine 100 100 times, got 60 60 heads, and wants to declare victory. What do you tell him?

Answer

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