One Lag Too Many

Using a long history of daily closes for a liquid stock, you fit St+1=β1St+β2St−1+εt S_{t+1} = \beta_1 S_t + \beta_2 S_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t . (a) What signs and rough magnitudes should you expect for β1 \beta_1 and β2 \beta_2 ? (b) If you instead run two separate one-variable regressions — St+1 S_{t+1} on St S_t alone, and St+1 S_{t+1} on St−1 S_{t-1} alone — what coefficients should each produce? (c) Which estimate of the coefficient on St S_t carries the smaller standard error: the joint fit or the univariate one?

Answer

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