Three Quotes That Sum Wrong

A bookmaker posts decimal odds on a match with exactly three outcomes -- a stake of $1 \$1 at decimal odds d d returns $d \$d in total if the outcome hits, and nothing otherwise.

Home 2.10,Draw 4.00,Away 4.20. \text{Home } 2.10, \qquad \text{Draw } 4.00, \qquad \text{Away } 4.20.

(a) Is there a risk-free profit here? Show how you know in one line. (b) With $1,000 \$1{,}000 to deploy, how do you split it, and what do you make? (c) A second book posts odds whose implied probabilities sum to 1.05 1.05 . What does that number mean, and why is the situation in (a) so rare in practice?

Answer

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