How Wide Should the Interval Be

An interviewer asks you to estimate an unknown quantity and to give an interval around it. The scoring is stated up front: you collect $10 \$10 if the true value lands inside your interval, and you are charged $1 \$1 for every standard deviation of width you use. Formally, if your belief about the quantity is normal with mean μ \mu and standard deviation σ \sigma , and you quote μ±kσ \mu \pm k\sigma , your expected score is

10(2Φ(k)−1)−2k. 10 \left( 2\Phi(k) - 1 \right) - 2k.

Which k k maximises the score, what coverage does it correspond to, and what does that tell you about how confident an interval a trader should volunteer?

Answer

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