How Wide Should the Interval Be
An interviewer asks you to estimate an unknown quantity and to give an interval around it. The scoring is stated up front: you collect if the true value lands inside your interval, and you are charged for every standard deviation of width you use. Formally, if your belief about the quantity is normal with mean and standard deviation , and you quote , your expected score is
Which maximises the score, what coverage does it correspond to, and what does that tell you about how confident an interval a trader should volunteer?
Answer
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