The Envelope You Already Opened

A dealer picks an amount M M uniformly from {$100, $200, $400} \{\$100,\, \$200,\, \$400\} , puts M M into one envelope and 2M 2M into the other, seals both, and hands you one at random. You open yours and find $200 \$200 .

(a) Should you swap? (b) Work out the right policy for every amount you might have seen. (c) A colleague argues: "whatever is in your envelope, the other holds either double or half with equal chance, so swapping is worth 12(2x)+12(x/2)=1.25x \tfrac{1}{2}(2x) + \tfrac{1}{2}(x/2) = 1.25x -- always swap, and swap again forever." Where exactly does that break, and how much is your correct policy actually worth?

Answer

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