The Briefcase You Didn't Pick
A game host sets two locked briefcases in front of you; one contains exactly twice as much cash as the other. You grab one at random. Before opening it you reason: "Call my amount . The other case holds or with equal probability, so its expected value is — I should trade." But the identical logic would then tell you to trade back, and so on forever. Pinpoint exactly what is wrong with the argument.
Answer
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