The Briefcase You Didn't Pick

A game host sets two locked briefcases in front of you; one contains exactly twice as much cash as the other. You grab one at random. Before opening it you reason: "Call my amount X X . The other case holds 2X 2X or X/2 X/2 with equal probability, so its expected value is 1.25X 1.25X — I should trade." But the identical logic would then tell you to trade back, and so on forever. Pinpoint exactly what is wrong with the argument.

Answer

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